Friday, October 29, 2004

Electoral College Prediction

For more information and analysis go to The Monk's Electoral College 2004 Prediction website.

Don't miss State-By-State Analysis. And add your own comments and analysis in the comments section of this post.

The Scream! & Scream 2! scenarios are 2 examples of an Electoral College tie.

Take a look at the The Shift in the Electoral College since 2000 and why it matters.

Take a stroll down the Florida 2000 memory lane. The Monk presents a day-by-day chronology.

Find out why Florida 2004 will NOT be a repeat of the Florida 2000 Debacle.


The Monk's Prediction

Click on photo to enlarge

The Monk

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 53% Bush - 46% Kerry
Electoral College: 356 Bush - 182 Kerry


Compare with the Weekly Standard staff:


William Kristol

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry
Electoral College: 348 Bush - 190 Kerry

Stephen Hayes

Kerry wins
Popular Vote: 50% Kerry - 48% Bush
Electoral College: 291 Kerry - 247 Bush

Fred Barnes

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry
Electoral College: 306 Bush - 232 Kerry

Victorino Matus

Kerry wins
Popular Vote: 49% Kerry - 47% Bush
Electoral College: Kerry 285 - Bush 253

Jonathan V. Last

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 54% Bush - 46% Kerry
Electoral College: 293 Bush - 245 Kerry

Matt Labash

Kerry wins
Popular Vote: 50% Kerry - 49% Bush
Electoral College: 295 Kerry - 243 Bush

Terry Eastland

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry
Electoral College: 296 Bush -242 Kerry

David Tell

Bush wins
Popular Vote: Bush 48.8% - Kerry 49.4%
Electoral College count known on 11/3/04: Bush 232 - Kerry 231
Electoral College on 1/20/05: Bush 270 - Kerry 267

Katherine Mangu-Ward

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 50% Kerry
Electoral College: 269 Bush - 269 Kerry--Republican House decides for Bush

Richard Starr

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 49.9% Bush - 49.1% Kerry
Electoral College: 283 Bush - 255 Kerry

David Skinner

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 51% Bush - 49% Kerry
Electoral College: 271 Bush - 267 Kerry

Matthew Continetti

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry
Electoral College: Bush 281 - Kerry 257.

Rachel DiCarlo

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 51% Bush - 48% Kerry
Electoral College: 298 Bush - 240 Kerry

Michael Goldfarb

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 50% Bush - 49% Kerry
Electoral College: 297 Bush - 241 Kerry

Duncan Currie

Bush wins
Popular Vote: 52% Bush - 47% Kerry
Electoral College: 286 Bush - 252 Kerry

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